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Posted at March 9, 2006, 7:58 pm: there are stories of funny bad beats at some sites. i know that is variance, one of a million hands, etc. but on the other site we are only against dealing computer. so you never can't be 100% sure. i know there are independing institutions watching over some sites, but does anyone know what are they watching? if that would be: - preflop (i guess noone would try it here) - am sure everywhere is totally random - flop - still guess not - after preflop (not so obvious, but still not so perfectly hidden) - i guess not. but there are some specific happenings - bad beats at river. it would be great if those institutions would check not all hands, but only those and try to check if best hand at turn is winning hand at the end (if 90% favourite hand at turn is winning in around 90% of time at the end). what i am missing is well known publicly shown results (does anyone have any info about that?). if that would be the case i believe that kind of institution would get more serious by sites and those would like it to check their records to be shown publicly. or not? what do you think? just my thinking - there might be a chance that a site would make 90% winner at turn to win in only 85% of time. noone would recongize it for sure. why would anyone do that? to keep bad players at money. math: let say it goes to the river every 4th hand (which is much less than in reality). let's take 400 hands (so 100 of those go to the river). so 90 hands should win a 90% better hand on turn. but in this case it wins only in 85%. so 5 hands are rigged among 400 hands. but let's see what this could mean: let say that it is played 1 mio hands per day at this site. that means 12500 rigged hands / day. let say that average table at this site is 2/4$ and that average pot is 20$. that would mean 12500 x 20$ = 250.000$ returned back to bad players / day (which would be otherwise lost). how much in rake would that extra money mean? don't know, but i assume it would be a huge number. (+ i took 20$ average table, but in case of 'impossible' bad beat, rake would be much higher than average rake. maybe 25$? another 25% more) what bad players really mean to site you can see at the site you all well know - they give you just 4 points for any NL table but much more points for any fixed limit table. simple reason - all sites like fixed limit tables, because bad players 'live' much longer there, than they would at NL tables. more playing, more rake. would anyone recognize this? no way. would it be profitable for the site? definitely yes. would it be difficult to 'correct' computer this way? it is possible. if it's possible, than you can't be 100% sure. was thinking about this when i saw a lot of posts about bad beats at one particular site - and that is the only network i had some doubts too. that was just an example, many figures would be very different in reallity, just wanted to point it out why independant institution investigation would be helpful. just think about casinos - they like publicly shown results of their returned money, they even compete who will give back more. this 'conspiracy theory' might work at fixed limit, but much less at NL, where you can secure your pot easier. any comment of fixed limit player would be nice. peace. 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