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Posted at November 17, 2004, 5:32 pm: Why doesn't anyone ever test poker sites or online casinos for an abnormal amount of consistent "streakiness"? I've been closely monitoring every single hand of Blackjack I've been playing at Planet Luck, and what I've found is that while the overall results are fairly near expectation, it's streaky as hell. Wins and losses bunch together in a way that I'm not sure is normal. I either get completely dominated for long stretches, or I kick utter ass. I have similar experience at poker sites, particularly at Party. The problem with the RNG software auditing that goes on is that they only check for one thing: whether or not the numbers are in line with overall probability. That isn't enough. Testing for prevalence of trends is something that really ought to be done. Some people might say "who cares about streaks, as long as it all checks out in the long run." This is why: streaks optimize the emotional and psychological effects of winning and losing. These effects, whether for the big winner OR the big loser, almost always work in the favor of a casino or cardroom. Streaks are a critical factor. If I were going to optimize casino software, putting in a "streak" algorithm is the FIRST thing I'd do. Streaks ensure that you're either desperately chasing losses or feeling really good and trying to add on to wins. When you're losing, you remember the last winning streak. When you're winning you may feel the losing streak coming, but you feel like you'll eventually be back where you are now. Besides, maybe you'll get lucky and it won't come before your next cashout... With online poker it levels the playing field a little. If the fish have a load of short-term luck, they'll stick around longer, and be more likely to redeposit when the bad luck comes. The poker rooms also know how "pros" think - that they are trained to be indifferent to streaks and chalk it all up to variance. It's win-win. The closer the cards, roulette balls, and everything else get to running even, the less the psychological effect. The casino players get bored while watching their money slowly erode, and the fish at poker sites quickly lose to the superior play of their opponents. Ensuring streaks could easily be done, and it could be done right under the nose of the auditors, since they don't test for that. They see that the overall results are in line with expectation and figure their work is done. Original of the message was taken from http://www.bonuswhores.com/phpBB2/ Replies:It ties in with the "action flop" theory for online poker.Like Jay said, don't pretend you know what goes into the "randomness a... Even a simplest RNG test includes a test of streakiness. Thanks, I'll look at it. @izverg: So if they test for streakiness, do you think that most or ... I see you haven't read the link yet. <sigh> So I will have to read the stuff. Every time I get into an argument with math, I lose. take this for what it is worth. Interesting that 1) I'd already come to the conclusions on that page a... Just for the hell of it I decided to replace heads/tails with my first... edit Odds of losing a BJ hand and winning a BJ hand are not even. The problem is what are you going to compare it to??? You can't compa... Skip to the bottom. Very nice, Christopher, and I thought you didn't even want to make pro... Other Topics of Bonus Whores:UB or bodog?royal vegas Sunpoker is garbage Absolute new bonus - have they ever flagged accounts? Empire October reload when did full tilt become horrible? poker tracker and stat king Car search is almost over.... whaddya think? Goal Poker (Absolute) - 100% to $500 Can you get sign up bonues and refer a friend party skin Can't find a bonus... Prepaid ATM Appears to be Out of Business playing behind a firewall Party Poker Rakeback blank page problem Party poker settlements? Crypto bonus points? Is the Hollywood download client freezing your machine? Prima Network Down? Question About the Empire Bonus Who is still advertizing ... delete this thread moderator... $20 from Gaming Club Poker Mountain proposal my girl dump me Negative Balance @ Absolute? Cleavage or Thongs? How would you play this? PokerShare (UB skin) Automobile Wishlist. Has anyone got paid for the Party football promo. My 66 dollar heads up 1/2 limit pot Party Poker - Mike, where are you promotion $500 |